NORTH DARFUR – The battle for El Fasher, the last major urban center in Darfur outside the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) control, is reaching a decisive point. A new assessment by the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) warns that the city is “Falling” to the RSF, with devastating consequences for civilians.
Using satellite imagery and field analysis, HRL concludes that RSF forces have likely captured the former UNAMID compound, once the headquarters of Joint Forces, and now move without resistance through Abu Shouk Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) Camp. “RSF maintains tactical advantage and siege conditions in the event of a prolonged battle; their berms almost entirely encircle El Fasher, while RSF maintains continued supply and logistics superiority and continues to successfully deny supply lines to SAF as well as the civilians of El Fasher,” the report stated.
On 18 September, HRL identified a major RSF assault of more than 80 vehicles, including an armored fighting vehicle, advancing through Abu Shouk IDP camp from the north. Satellite imagery showed widespread destruction, with buildings razed between 15 and 17 September and more than 250 visible munition impacts in the surrounding area.
Imagery from 15 to 18 September revealed damage at the UNAMID compound, corroborated by pro-RSF media claiming the site’s capture. HRL assessed that Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and allied troops were forced to retreat toward El Fasher’s airfield and the university area. “HRL concludes that RSF likely holds Joint Forces’ base of operations, the former UNAMID compound, and can move without resistance through Abu Shouk IDP Camp,” the assessment added.
The loss of Abu Shouk, one of Darfur’s largest displacement camps, places tens of thousands of vulnerable civilians directly under RSF control. Reports already point to abductions and targeted violence inside the camp.
Beyond the northwest front, RSF units have also advanced across the Souk area, shrinking SAF’s defensive boundary near El Fasher’s water treatment plant. The airfield, now the de facto base of operations for SAF’s 6th Division, has been heavily bombarded, with satellite images showing saturation of munition impacts.
HRL’s analysis suggests SAF’s position is collapsing. The report found no significant vehicle reserves capable of mounting a defense. The killing of Joint Forces commander Burah around 15 September delivered a further blow to SAF’s leadership and morale.
Advanced weaponry is also shaping the battle. On 18 September, HRL identified a CH-95/FH-95-consistent unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), previously seen at RSF-controlled Nyala airport, flying over El Fasher’s airport. “RSF’s utilization of this UAV over SAF’s base of operations indicates that RSF does not assess that SAF has the capability to shoot down this UAV,” the report noted. The drone’s surveillance and electronic warfare capacity likely enabled RSF to coordinate close-quarter maneuvers. SAF may still deploy TB2-style UAVs, but their impact appears limited.
HRL warns that RSF control of El Fasher and Abu Shouk IDP Camp would open the way to systematic mass atrocities. With the camp now under RSF control, every displacement site in Darfur outside Tawilah is in the group’s hands. Civilians attempting to flee have already “disappeared,” while women and girls are being abducted and men and boys executed or tortured.
The Yale report concludes that without immediate reinforcements, the fall of El Fasher is virtually certain. The consequences, it warns, are already “catastrophic” for civilians trapped under siege.
