Addressing the United Nations Security Council last week, Russian Deputy Permanent Representative Anna Evstigneeva warned that the security situation across South Sudan is deteriorating, with escalating clashes threatening to worsen an already dire humanitarian crisis.
“The security situation in South Sudan does not bode well,” she said, pointing to intensified fighting in northern regions, particularly Jonglei State, where government forces are conducting operations against what she described as “subversive forces.”
She further highlighted instability in Greater Equatoria and Upper Nile State, noting that ongoing violence has disrupted civilian life and displaced communities. According to Evstigneeva, the deteriorating security environment is stretching humanitarian operations, with aid workers increasingly exposed to life-threatening risks amid severe funding shortages.
Despite mounting criticism of the government in Juba over its handling of the peace process, the Russian diplomat maintained that the country’s leadership remains committed to the Revitalized Peace Agreement.
“We note that the South Sudanese leadership has not renounced its commitment to this document,” she said, citing plans to hold elections in December 2026 as evidence of continued political will.
Evstigneeva urged the Council to prioritise support for a stable security environment ahead of the planned elections and cautioned against narratives suggesting that South Sudan cannot manage its political transition without external interference.
However, recent political and security developments suggest a more complex reality, casting doubt on the trajectory of the peace deal.
The agreement has faced mounting strain since March 2025, when First Vice President Riek Machar was placed under house arrest following the deadly Nasir incident in Upper Nile State that left Lt. Gen. David Majur Dak and dozens of his bodyguards dead.
Machar, leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO), has remained in detention for over a year and is facing charges of murder and treason alongside several allies—allegations his supporters describe as politically motivated.
The situation has been further compounded by the removal of opposition officials from government positions, a move criticised by the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission in January 2026 as a violation of the peace agreement.
In addition, the government of President Salva Kiir has initiated amendments to the peace deal and the transitional constitution, citing technical challenges ahead of elections—steps that have drawn backlash from opposition groups.
These developments prompted the African Union to establish a committee aimed at pushing for Machar’s release, the resumption of inclusive dialogue, and a return to full implementation of the agreement. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development has also remained engaged in mediation efforts.
Western governments and peace monitors have warned that these cumulative actions risk pushing the agreement toward collapse—an assessment that contrasts with Moscow’s more measured stance.
Even so, Evstigneeva stressed that South Sudan needs “substantive assistance, not criticism,” particularly as it confronts mounting economic challenges and humanitarian pressures.
