JUBA – South Sudan has recorded a 14 per cent increase in ceasefire violations in January 2026, driven largely by escalating armed confrontations between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO), according to new data released by the Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring and Verification Mechanism (CTSAMVM).
In its latest monthly snapshot, CTSAMVM documented 87 alleged violations of Chapter II of the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), up from 76 in December 2025. Chapter II of the agreement governs the permanent ceasefire and transitional security arrangements.
The ceasefire monitors also reported a 43 per cent jump in incidents classified under direct clashes compared to the previous month, with near-daily fighting concentrated in Jonglei State.
The violence was reported across Uror, Duk, Pigi, Akobo, Ayod and Nyirol counties, where rival forces battled for territorial control. Contested locations such as Pajut in Duk County, Waat in Nyirol County and Yuai in Uror County reportedly changed hands several times during the month, reflecting a sustained struggle for presence and influence.
According to CTSAMVM, the humanitarian consequences have been severe. Reports indicate civilian killings, injuries, sexual violence, displacement and widespread restrictions on movement as clashes spread across affected areas.
The monitoring body also expressed concern over the continued use of aerial bombardments by SSPDF in civilian-populated environments, describing such actions as gross violations of the ceasefire provisions under Chapter II. It cited reports that aerial strikes carried out on 13 and 14 January in Pathai, Uror County, resulted in civilian deaths and severe burn injuries.
The Malakal Monitoring and Verification Team, which oversees Upper Nile State and north-eastern Jonglei State, recorded 35 violations — the highest number nationwide for the second consecutive month. The figure represents more than 40 per cent of all violations documented in January.
The rise in hostilities comes at a time when CTSAMVM’s monitoring capacity is under strain. Due to financial constraints, the mechanism closed three of its field teams in Yei, Bentiu and Yambio during January, reducing its operational footprint.
In addition, five high-priority field missions were cancelled following delays in obtaining Flight Safety Assurances, leaving the mechanism able to conduct only one Long Duration Patrol during the month.
The deteriorating security environment has also constrained international actors. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) reported 53 freedom-of-movement restrictions in January, while humanitarian operations were hampered by access limitations and direct targeting.
CTSAMVM warned that the Permanent Ceasefire is currently not holding in Jonglei State and condemned rhetoric that incites violence as a breach of the peace agreement’s provisions. The January figures, it said, reflect a troubling escalation in armed confrontations that threatens the fragile gains of the 2018 peace deal.
