JUBA—South Sudan is projected to record the fastest economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa in 2026, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting a sharp rebound in output as the country emerges from severe economic contraction.
The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects South Sudan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 10.5 percent in 2026, though this marks a sharp decline from the 41.4% recorded in 2025.
South Sudan is followed by Ethiopia, whose economy is forecast to expand by 9.2 percent. However, the IMF expects South Sudan’s growth to slow to 3.9 percent in 2027.
The forecast places South Sudan at the top of the region’s growth rankings, despite the country facing persistent economic challenges, which include heavy dependence on oil revenues and vulnerability to disruptions in oil production and exports.
The IMF’s October Regional Economic Outlook Update: Sub-Saharan Africa forecasts regional economic growth of 4.5 percent in both 2026 and 2027, following estimated growth of 4.5 percent in 2025.
The regional report says the region has weathered external economic pressures better than expected, helped by adjustments in global supply chains, favorable export receipts in some countries, and earlier economic reforms. However, it warns that growth prospects differ significantly across economies.
Oil-exporting and other resource-intensive economies have generally shown greater resilience, while growth in non-resource-intensive economies is expected to moderate.
For South Sudan, the projected expansion represents a significant turnaround in economic performance. However, rapid GDP growth does not necessarily translate into improved living standards for households, particularly in an economy where public finances and foreign exchange earnings are heavily influenced by oil exports.
The IMF’s growth projections also come against a difficult regional backdrop. The IMF says median inflation across sub-Saharan Africa is expected to rise from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 5 percent in 2027, driven partly by higher fuel, transport, and imported input costs.
The IMF also warns that elevated borrowing costs, limited foreign-exchange reserves in many countries, and declining development assistance are limiting governments’ ability to respond to further economic shocks.
Bilateral aid to the region is projected to decline by a further 12 percent in 2026 after falling by roughly one-quarter in 2025, according to the report’s assessment of projections by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
The IMF says governments should preserve temporary gains from commodity exports, strengthen domestic revenue collection, and protect productive investment rather than use short-term revenue increases to finance permanent spending commitments.
The report also calls for targeted support to vulnerable households, improved debt management, and reforms that encourage private-sector investment and productivity.
But for South Sudan, the economic challenge would be turning the projected rebound into more durable and broadly shared growth. That would require reducing vulnerability to oil-sector shocks, strengthening public financial management, and supporting productive activities beyond the petroleum industry.
The IMF cautions that the regional outlook remains exposed to renewed energy-supply disruptions, higher financing costs, further aid reductions, and severe weather shocks, including the effects of El Niño.
While South Sudan’s projected growth rate stands out across the region, the forecast alone does not establish whether the expansion will create enough jobs, ease household hardship, or improve access to essential services.
