JUBA—South Sudan’s population is projected to grow from 16.4 million in 2026 to 20.3 million by 2030, according to a new report launched by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Juba on Wednesday.
The report attributes the projected increase to natural population growth and regional migration.
Titled “Population Situation Analysis (PSA) 2026,” the report draws on the 2021 Population Estimation Survey, the 2025 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, administrative records, and demographic projections, to provide a national evidence base for development planning, budgeting, and policymaking.
The report also estimates that about 47% of South Sudan’s population is under 15 years old, while 79% is under 35. The NBS said this highlights the need for investment in education, healthcare and employment opportunities for young people.
It projects that three states will receive more than 60% of net migration through 2030, with the bureau stating that such a projection underscores the need for direct public services and resources to those areas experiencing population movements.
The office of the National Bureau of Statistics did not mention which states are those.
Speaking at the launch, Dr. Augustino Ting Mayai, director general of the NBS, said reliable population data was essential for informed decision-making and warned that planning without credible statistics risked relying on assumptions.
“Without timely and credible data, national planning risks being guided by assumptions rather than evidence,” Mayai said, urging government institutions and other stakeholders to use the report as the best available evidence until a new census is conducted.
Government agencies that attended the launch pledged to incorporate the findings into sectoral plans and national development frameworks. Meanwhile, development partners said the projections could help identify areas with the greatest need for services, including classrooms and humanitarian support.
The bureau called on ministries, development partners and civil society organisations to use the report’s mid-year population estimates as common reference figures for humanitarian, development and Sustainable Development Goals programmes.
South Sudan has not conducted a population and housing census since before independence, leaving policymakers reliant on surveys, administrative records and population estimates for planning.
The report comes as South Sudan prepares for general elections scheduled for December 22, 2026.
The government has removed the national census and the permanent constitution-making process as preconditions for holding the vote under the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan.
The National Elections Commission has said it will use the 2008 population census and the 2010 constituency boundaries for the elections.
The population projections are intended to guide development planning and resource allocation as electoral preparations proceed without a new census.
