Amum who is a former secretary-general of the now fractured SPLM party, advocated for a national conference to address the crisis and accepted the Kenyan mediation role, emphasizing it might be the last chance to prevent disaster in the world’s youngest country.
The prominent opposition leader deems the current peace agreement defunct due to persistent violence and expresses hope that Kenya will learn from past failures and push for genuine implementation, paving the way for a future of peace and stability in South Sudan.
Read below the full-text interview with Amum.
Q1. GENERAL PAGAN AMUM, CHAIRMAN OF REAL SPLM, WELCOME TO THIS INTERVIEW AND THANK YOU FOR SPEAKING TO SUDANS POST. SOUTH SUDAN GOVERNMENT IS PLANNING TO HOLD ELECTIONS THIS YEAR. MANY OPPOSITION GROUPS, INCLUDING THOSE WITHIN THE UNITY GOVERNMENT, OPPOSE THIS. WHAT IS YOUR POSITION ON HOLDING ELECTIONS IN 2024?
ANSWER: President Kiir and his SPLM-IG are the ones who are dishonouring the agreement they signed, and they are to deliver on their commitments to the people of South Sudan, once again. President Kiir and the clique around him have obstructed the implementation of R-ARCSS, as we predicted in 2018 that they will not implement it.
They have failed to implement all the transitional programs to build peace, reconcile, heal and reunite the nation and to restore stability in the country, they obstructed all the reforms and programs to rebuild state institutions and establish good governance and to transform the security and defense sector with the aim to restore rule of law and to ensure freedoms, etc., have been all blocked by President Kiir and ruling clique.
I do not think that the opposition are the ones opposing elections, rather President Kiir and the cartel around him have decidedly frustrated the transition to peace and democracy in South Sudan as a matter of strategy. It is their strategy to rule South Sudan through chaos, instability, failed transitions, and repeated extensions. They have completely hijacked and captured the young state in South Sudan. Instead of using the peace agreements for South Sudan to exit fragility and state failure, they doubled down to consolidate their regime whose aim is to loot the national resources and protect they have looted.
When the R-ARCSS transition came to an end President Kiir and his clique imposed on his partners an extension for two more years to remain in power, their partners had to accept grudgingly. The roadmap they signed promised expedited implementation of the agreement, particularly fulfilment of the prerequisites for holding elections at the end of 2024. As we expected the SPLM IG has gone about implementing their plan not to deliver on the requirements for holding free and fair elections.
First by delayed the permanent constitution-making process. While it was agreed that these elections shall only “be organized in accordance with the provisions of permanent constitution” (R-ARCSS art. 1.20. 4), secondly the National Elections Commission (NEC) was supposed to have been reconstituted as an independent body in May 2020 it is now reconstituted in December 2023 after more than three years delay. Its independence is in doubt to put it mildly. But this comes when elections are left with 11 months. The government did not budget for elections in its 2023 budget, when elections were declared to be the most important goal by the President when he launch his campaign to “secure” his nomination to be the flag bearer of his party.
How come that NEC was not reconstituted and funded early if President Kiir and the SPLM-IG were serious about elections? Thirdly, the census was not conducted as agreed in R-ARCSS, constituencies are not demarcated, there is no voter register, and NEC has no infrastructure at the national, state and county level, how can it organize election in ten months and not a single activity is started yet? Beside all that there is no peace, no political and civic space, or freedoms in the country for the parties to organize and campaign particularly to criticize the incumbent government and leadership by those who may call for change through elections.
The regime was never and is not serious about elections they have done everything so that they impose another extension after extension. But with this they lose not only legitimacy, but they are running out of time and tricks as they are driving the country into chaos and possible collapse of the state in the centre. That strategy will lead to the disintegration of South Sudan which is not even good for them. South Sudanese must now begin to think carefully how to rescue the country from the eminent collapse into chaos and disorder.
Q2. SOME FEAR THESE ELECTIONS COULD TRIGGER FURTHER CONFLICT. DO YOU SHARE THIS CONCERN, AND IF SO, WHAT STEPS COULD BE TAKEN TO MITIGATE THE RISK?
ANSWER: Yes, elections held under the current circumstances, which would mean an attempt to steal legitimacy, if at all they are held, would lead to conflict and disaster in South Sudan. The only way to avoid such a risk is by convening an inclusive round table conference to build national consensus on a way out of the present national crisis and predicament. South Sudanese are called to immerse in a deep soul-searching to arrive at a new roadmap to exit state failure and fragility and usher South Sudan into a new dispensation of peace, justice, and prosperity.
Q3. IF YOU BELIEVE THE COUNTRY NEEDS MORE TIME BEFORE ELECTIONS, WHAT KEY PRIORITIES SHOULD BE ADDRESSED FIRST?
ASNWER: South Sudan needs to find a way to exit from the present trap in the cycles of failed transitions, extensions, and recurring wars. We must take South Sudan out of state capture and kleptocracy into a new path of viable state and nation-building. This can be achieved through a historical compromise in which the ruling clique are given incentives and guarantees to accept and allow a transition and to hand over power back to the people of South Sudan to determine their political system and to elect their governments periodically in free and peaceful elections.
Q4. GIVEN THIS WOULD BE SOUTH SUDAN’S FIRST NATIONAL ELECTION, HOW CRUCIAL IS ITS CONDUCT IN SETTING A PRECEDENT FOR FUTURE ELECTIONS?
ANSWER: The real first election would be after South Sudanese have agreed to new social contract as the basis for a democratic state and nation-building consensual project which would be developed and codified into a Permanent Constitution. Our first genuine elections will be organized in accordance with the permanent constitution, after South Sudanese have reconciled themselves and have healed their self-inflicted wounds. Anything before these processes would be nothing but attempts to steal legitimacy.
Q5. KENYA IS REPORTEDLY PREPARING TO MEDIATE BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT AND NON-SIGNATORIES OF R-ARCSS TO END THE CONFLICT. HAVE YOU RECEIVED OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION FROM KENYA ABOUT THIS INITIATIVE?
ANSWER: Yes, we have received communication from President William Ruto, and we are currently consulting with the government of Kenya and Sant’Egidio Community.
Q6. WHAT DO YOU HOPE THESE KENYA-LED TALKS WILL ACHIEVE THAT PREVIOUS ATTEMPTS, LIKE THOSE BY SANT’EGIDIO, COULDN’T?
ANSWER: We hope that Kenya as a new mediator will draw lessons from the experiences of other mediators who tried to bring peace to South Sudan. We hope Kenya will interrogate the causes why all mediators have failed to achieve peace in South Sudan, or rather why the agreements are not implemented by the parties to agreement, why the mediators and grantors of agreements have failed to meaningfully intervene so that these agreements could have led to peace and stability or to deliver some peace dividend in terms of development and prosperity. The Kenyan initiative is probably the last opportunity for President Kiir and all South Sudanese stakeholders to rescue their country before it is too late.
Q7. WHAT, IN YOUR VIEW, IS BEHIND THE GOVERNMENT’S SHIFT IN MEDIATORS?
ANSWER: The government is engaging in forum shopping. They did not like how the talks developed in Rome under Sant’Egidio, so they shifted to Kenya.
Q8: GENERAL MALONG HAS EXPRESSED WILLINGNESS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE KENYA TALKS. WOULD YOU ALSO PARTICIPATE?
ANSWER: Yes, all the opposition parties and the NCF [National Consensus Forum] have welcomed the Kenyan mediation and will be engaging in pre-mediation consultations.
Q9: RECENT CLASHES BETWEEN SSPDF AND SPLA-IO IN UNITY STATE RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT THE REVITALIZED PEACE AGREEMENT. HOW DO YOU VIEW THESE DEVELOPMENTS?
ANSWER: The R- R-ARCSS has expired and is dead. There is no peace in South Sudan. It is time to discuss how to get South Sudan out of this mess before it is too late.
Q10. GENERAL PAGAN AMUM, THANK YOU FOR SPEAKING TO SUDANS POST.
ANSWER: You’re welcome.
according to my analysis, Holdout group will agree so that any one who wants this country to be in peace will welcome that idea . look at that war in Unity State and many others place the country. if president has plan , that should be last of all , peace, security and stability should be the first. therefore president has no plans for the country. they divided the nation instead to bring them together, they demanding only corrupt election. election is when there is peace and security.
by Duoth Deng
public Administration and development management students at Salale University in Ethiopia