![South Sudan lawmaker Reath Muoch Tang. [Photo courtesy]](https://i0.wp.com/www.sudanspost.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/272000172_7415198111827495_8093272322517901950_n.jpg?resize=1060%2C627&ssl=1)
In a statement seen by Sudans Post, Reath Muoch Tang who represents Upper Nile state in the peace parliament accused unnamed individuals within the government of perpetuating a “dangerous scheme” that could exacerbate ethnic tensions in the war-torn country.
“This is not true! No data was collected in order to make an estimate. It’s purely a work of the Enemies of Peace in South Sudan,” Tang said in the brief statement on his social media Facebook page.
The senior official of the main armed opposition group went on to suggest that the estimates were being used as a political tool by individuals – who he didn’t name – seeking to “continue destroying the country on tribal lines.”
Tang also criticized the government for relying on estimates made from within Juba, the country’s capital, without taking necessary measures and work for population estimates.
“You cannot sit in Juba and make an estimation inside your house,” he said.
The lawmaker’s comments were met with both support and criticism from fellow politicians. Some praised his willingness to speak out against the government, while others accused him of promoting division and undermining the legitimacy of the population estimates.
The controversy over the population estimates comes at a time of heightened tensions in South Sudan, where a civil war that began in 2013 has left tens of thousands dead and displaced millions of people.
The conflict has been fueled by ethnic rivalries and power struggles within the ruling party.
Observers say that accurate population estimates are crucial for the country’s future, as they can help inform government policies on everything from education to health care to infrastructure development.
However, critics like Tang argue that such estimates must be based on reliable data and take into account the perspectives of people from all parts of the country.
The National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday released results of a 2021 population estimate survey, putting President Salva Kiir Mayardit’s home state of Warrap at the helm with more than 2,639,487, a 171.47% from the 2008 population census which put Warrap at 972,928.
The latest government estimates also make the president’s home state greater in population than the three states of the Upper Nile region combined.
Based on the 2008 population census, Jonglei was the most populous state in South Sudan with at least 1,358,602.
Based on the latest government estimates, it stands at a population of 791,105 which is a 41.6% population decrease in only 13 years.
Tang is not the first person to reject the latest population estimates.
Jok Madut Jok, an academic and professor of anthropology, suggested that the estimates could be the work of the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) aimed at rigging constituency demarcation and future elections.
“Let’s hope this South Sudan population estimates were concocted by SPLM, as an attempt to rig future constituency demarcation and elections, not the work of Bureau of Statistics!” Jok said.
“It also means that the votes of Bahr Ghazal alone can give a win to whoever can steal these votes, for both presidency and parliament! Nonsense!” he added.
Economist and pro-democracy activist Peter Biar Ajak also expressed suspicion over the population estimates.
“These numbers of South Sudan’s population estimates released by the National Bureau of Statistics are extremely suspicious,” Ajak said.
“It’s hard to believe that the population of Warrap State alone is equal to that of three states of Greater Upper Nile combined,” he added.
COMPARISON OF 2008 SUDAN NATIONAL CENSUS RESULTS WITH UN OCHA’S 2021 POPULATION ESTIMATES IN SOUTH SUDAN
Introduction
In reference to page 26, row 19, column 2 of table 08 of the report presented by the Population Census Council in April 26th 2009 5th Sudan population and housing census of 2008, you will recall that Warrap state population was said and confirmed to be only 972,928 compare to Jonglei state population which was 1,358,602, which was half time higher than that of Warrap state. The summary confirmed the following:
Details of 2008 Sudan National Census Results in South Sudan:
Upper Nile state with the population of 964,353.
Jonglei state with the population of 1358602
Unity state with the population of 585,801.
Warrap state with the population of 972,928
Northern Bahr el Ghazal state with the population of 720,898
Western Bahr El Ghazal with the population of 333,431
Lake State with the population of 695,730
Western Equatoria with the population of 619,029
Eastern Equatoria with the population of 1103592
Central Equatoria with the population of 906,126
But coming to the recent population figures estimate meant for humanitarians planning in 2021, UN OCHA justified as follows:
Jonglei state with the estimated population of 1,982,222
Upper Nile state with the estimate population of 1,459,701
Warrap state with the estimated population of 1,262,489.
Unity state with the estimate population of 1,096,229
Northern Bahr el Ghazal state with the estimate population of 912,347
Western Bahr El Ghazal with the estimate population of 646,729
Western Equatoria with the estimated population of 914,326
Eastern Equatoria with the estimated population of 1,097,900
Central Equatoria with the estimated population of 1,507,980
Lake state with the estimated population of 1,180,247
GENERAL COMPARISON
comparing 2008 census while going further to examine 2021 UN OCHA population estimate, Warrap state cannot and will never exceed over Jonglei state in comparison to population even if Jonglei state had halt producing children during the last 15 years. and if it does, then the census of 2008 results is proven to be invalid and unacceptable because this multicollinearity test seem skewed in relative to provision of this result that appeared to be misleading. I said this because probabilities are too less reliable in comparison of this over jumping, and over declining average population growth from 972,928 to 2,639,484 which is two time higher than that of the whole Upper Nile region population when providing the conflicting variation of 1,666,556.
If the data of 2008 census were true, then there might be an exaggeration on the population estimate made in Juba because the variation is unreasonably huge making clarity of reasons believe that such can never happen even if the civil population in Warrap state happen to invent a new technology meant for manufacturing 100children in each households per day. I said this because with an estimated population of 1,982,222, Jonglei state has been the only three times largest populated state in the country, followed by Central Equatoria, which has 1,507,980 residents if the report presented by UN OCHA is to be made believed.