According to the document reviewed by Sudans Post, Kiir’s use of state powers has allegedly allowed him and his faction of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) to capitalize on the advantages of incumbency, extending their support base beyond his stronghold of Greater Bahr el Ghazal.
“For several years, President Kiir and his supporters in national and local government have leveraged the benefits of his incumbency and the SPLM brand to conduct rallies and mobilization campaigns across much of South Sudan,” the report stated.
“While President Kiir has personally toured parts of the country, SPLM-appointed representatives, including governors and youth cadres, have also organized hundreds of rallies dating as far back as 2018,” it continued.
The report emphasized that “As part of this process, President Kiir and SPLM have made considerable efforts to build support beyond the greater Bahr el Ghazal region, including within prominent non-Dinka communities such as within the Azande kingdom in Western Equatoria State, the Shilluk population in Upper Nile State, and the Anyuak kingdom in eastern Jonglei State.”
Senior members of the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) have allegedly violated regulations requiring them to refrain from political involvement, instead participating in SPLM political activities, the report claimed. This was evident at an SPLM rally in Eastern Equatoria State, where senior army commanders wore SPLM-branded attire.
“Government security forces have been deployed as part of several SPLM rallies. In one rally in Eastern Equatoria State, for example, senior SSPDF officers and units participated while wearing SPLM-branded clothing,” it said.
South Sudanese observers cited in the report expressed concerns over the escalation of SPLM campaigning, describing it as indicative of “a militarization of politics and politicization of the military.”
Conclusively, the report alleged that “Kiir has used his executive authority to build support and undermine opposition parties by appointing and removing dozens of officials at every level of government.”
Meanwhile, the main armed opposition SPLM-IO, led by First Vice President Riek Machar, has reportedly seen a decline in membership since Machar’s return to Juba following the signing of the revitalized peace agreement in 2018.
“While SPLM-IO is undoubtedly the most significant opposition party in South Sudan, it also arguably has the most to lose from imperfect elections,” the report suggests.
“Its senior leadership enjoy prominent roles within the current Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity, but the party’s political and military influence has also waned since Machar’s initial brief return to Juba in October 2018, in particular beyond the capital,” it added.
Defections, according to the report, have “limited the party’s ability to mobilize and campaign across the country, including in its historic heartland.” Machar himself is largely confined to Juba, with party leaders hesitant to endorse an election process they deem insufficient in providing them with adequate political space, the report says.
“More broadly, several SPLM/A-IO leaders fear that elections and any subsequent dissolution of the unity Government will further limit the full implementation of the peace agreement, including many provisions, such as security sector unification, that are critical to its membership,” it added.