Experts warn of future elections rigging after gov’t release of new population estimates

JUBA, APRIL 8, 2023 (SUDANS POST) – Experts and activists have expressed concerns over this week’s release of new government population estimates in South Sudan, warning that they could be used to rig future elections.

The National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday released results of a 2021 population estimate survey, putting President Salva Kiir Mayardit’s home state of Warrap at the helm with more than 2,639,487, a 171.47% from the 2008 population census which put Warrap at 972,928.

The latest government estimates also make the president’s home state greater in population than the three states of the Upper Nile region combined.

Based on the 2008 population census, Jonglei was the most populous state in South Sudan with at least 1,358,602.

Based on the latest government estimates, it stands at a population of 791,105 which is a 41.6% population decrease in only 13 years.

Jok Madut Jok, an academic and professor of anthropology, suggested that the estimates could be the work of the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) aimed at rigging constituency demarcation and future elections.

“Let’s hope this South Sudan population estimates were concocted by SPLM, as an attempt to rig future constituency demarcation and elections, not the work of Bureau of Statistics!” Jok said.

“It also means that the votes of Bahr Ghazal alone can give a win to whoever can steal these votes, for both presidency and parliament! Nonsense!” he added.

Economist and pro-democracy activist Peter Biar Ajak also expressed suspicion over the population estimates.

“These numbers of South Sudan’s population estimates released by the National Bureau of Statistics are extremely suspicious,” Ajak said.

“It’s hard to believe that the population of Warrap State alone is equal to that of three states of Greater Upper Nile combined,” he added.

For his part, activist Edmund Yakani of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization (CEPO) warned against politicization of the government estimates.

“CEPO viewed the realized population census estimation as good step towards proper conduct of national population census counting,” Yakani said.

“Politicizing the released population census estimation may direct negative impact on the process of the political transitional in the country especially if the political class want to use this attempt of population census for accelerating political objectives for addressing public governance political grievances,” he added.

The release of the population estimates comes as South Sudan prepares for a series of elections, including presidential and parliamentary polls, as part of a political transition aimed at ending years of conflict and instability.

However, concerns over the potential for election rigging have been raised in recent months.