By Matiop Aguek Anyang
OPINION – Civil action, commonly known as Civil disorder, Civil disturbance, Civil unrest or social unrest is an activity arising from a mass act of Civil disobedience such as demonstrations, riots, strikes or ignoring laws in which the participants become hostile towards the Authority that govern them.
Nearly a decade ago, Civil unrest that became commonly known as Arab Spring started in North Africa, Tunisia in 2010s. it rapidly became a series of government protests. Uprisings and armed rebellions that eventually spread across much of the Arab World.
The Tunisian unrest or Revolt also called the Jasmine Revolution took twenty-eight days to oust the government of longtime serving President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali from power. As a result, similar unrests were quickly spread to five other countries such as Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain.
For one reason or another, not all these protests successfully achieved the intended results. Some have ended up in consequent deterioration of lives of citizens where the protests took place. This can be evidenced in countries like Syria, Libya, just to mention a few.
The peoples `Coalition for Civil Action that is planned for 30th August 2021, against the President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his Deputy Dr. Riek Machar Teny, is categorically resulting from full dissatisfaction of how the affairs of a country are being ran since South Sudan broke out from Sudan on 9th July 2011, and to make it worse from 2013 to date.
Why Civil Unrest in South Sudan?
When South Sudan gained its independence from Sudan in 2011, there was high expectation for South Sudanese, carried on from the Vision of Late Dr. John Garang De Mabior. This however, didn`t go as such, the affairs and vision of the country got reduced to a mere power wrangling within the Revolutionary Party, the SPLM. Pitting President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his then and now Deputy Dr. Riek Mahcar Teny. This ultimately resulted into South Sudan`s Civil war of 2013 that the region and the whole World is trying to end.
Many reasons put forwards by the Peoples’ Coalition for Civil Action as basis for the planned demonstration set for 30th August 2021, are exactly part of the situations South Sudan finds itself in. Majority of South Sudanese in and outside will agree that the country is undergoing series of Political, Social, and economic stagnation.
What went wrong in South Sudan?
The correct answer rests entirely on the Leadership of President Salva Kiir Mayardit, then and now Deputy President Dr. Riek Machar Teny. Just in any country in the globe, the country`s future depends on `Political Nature` be it economy, social fabrics just to mention a few.
Will Civil Unrest succeed in South Sudan or not?
While civil unrest succeeded in ousting some stagnated governments in Africa and indeed, the whole world, it may not at a certain point, finds its ways the same in South Sudan. This is because of the followings.
- Social Fabrics in South Sudanese Society
Having fallen victim of political polarization, it is very easy to note that South Sudan as a nation, finds itself along Ethnic lines. This however, gives no any single incentive for a coordinated action that may successfully oust government of President Salva Kiir and Deputy Dr. Riek Machar Teny.
- The Public Institutions
Secondly, the Public Institutions like the Police, Army or SSPDF, the National Security just for examples, are too polarized along Ethnic and Political lines. This will make them ill prepared to handle any pressure as a result of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his Deputy Dr. Riek Machar Teny leaving power `involuntary` through civil unrest.
- The question of who to take over power?
Just as we are witnessing the various factions of rebellions in South Sudan, the answer to the question of `Who to take over power?` brings along `Instability` itself. This is because the `individual quests for Power` in South Sudan, overweight the `quests for a better future` of South Sudan as a country.
As I mentioned various rebel factions in South Sudan, the emergencies of these various rebellions, disjointed and uncoordinated under one leadership with one VISION, is a typical example that the country lacks what it intends to be unitedly.
How to get out of this mess?
The answer to the question of `how does South Sudan get out of this mess?`, needs clear analyses and studies. I will categorically divide these analyses into three phases.
- Phase One (Option One)
Under phase one (Option One), it entirely rests on President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Deputy Dr. Riek Machar Teny to engage in an `all out honest and full` implementation of the Revitalized Peace agreement in South Sudan. This will involve putting aside their individual political interests for the benefits of South Sudanese Society. In so doing, the country will find peace and the process of re-uniting polarized societies along ethnic and Political lines can begin to make shapes.
- Phase One (Option Two)
Secondly, if President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Deputy Dr. Riek Machar Teny find it difficult to work together, set aside their Political Interests, and move the country out of their planted mess, they can revert to phase One (Option Two)
Phase One (Option Two) will be for both the President and his Deputy to `Voluntary` surrender the power back to the People. If the two do this by leaving Power Voluntary, it will ease pressure on both sides of Political divides where the two find their roots hence giving chance for less risky mode of power transition.
How, why, and when to do this, is an answer to the question of “ how many South Sudanese still believe that the two (President Salva Kiir Kiir Mayardit and Deputy Riek Machar Teny) still have any plan in stock for the future of South Sudan?”
- Phase Two (Option One)
In this phase, the Peoples` Coalition for Civil Action has to study clearly the Social fabrics and Public Institutions of South Sudanese Society. This is because any “less risky success” in ousting both President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Deputy Dr. Riek Machar Teny depends on the Two.
- Phase Two (Option Two)
If the study reveals that South Sudan has good societal relations, ( this means that at least 80% of the 64 tribes can stand united in quest for a change ), strong and well prepared Public Institutions that will support such an involuntary change, the peoples` Coalition for Civil Action will be worth taking.
If the study reveals poor and polarized societal relations, Weak and ill prepared Public Institutions to maintain law and order amidst Political crisis, the Peoples` Coalition for Civil Action are worth advising in forgoing the planned 30th, August 2021 unrest.
- Phase Three
As a result of poor and polarized Societal Relations, Weak and ill prepared Public Institutions, the people of South Sudan may consider enduring with the Leadership of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Dr. Riek Machar Teny until the elections time to choose their own future.
Recommendation
I strongly recommend the Peoples` Coalition for Civil Action, the South Sudanese people to study themselves fully, the Public Institutions, for these are the catalysts for less risky change of governments around the world.
Secondly, I also recommend the government to study the reasons why people consider risking civil unrest against their governments, read relevant literature that had already happened in other countries and urgently “Develop a National Political and Economic Master Plan for South Sudan”.
Conclusion
Civil disobedience is always risky to countries with polarized societal fabrics, weak public institutions, and limited policy space.
The Author is a graduate student of Economic Development and Policy Analysis, University of Juba. He is reachable: Matiop.aguek@gmail.com.
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“Opinion | Impacts of the protests slated for August 30”
Mr. Matiop Aguek Anyang,
Even if all those South Sudanese get a PhD, with the brains of wanting to work ‘in office and for government jobs’. We will still be blaming Mr. Salva Kiir and his failed government 100 year later trust me. Those so-called ‘People’s of Coalition for Civil Action’
Are just bunch of anarchists who are being paid by foreign powers, UNMISS and NGOs, to create a chaos and the UN and the NGOs project would in South Sudan would ‘step up a notch’. 30/8/2021 was chosen by our enemies for this protest by our enemies to coincide with the US mercenaries withdrawal from Afghanistan on the 31/8/202.
I linked these on a few days ago:https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjh99LUyNHyAhVCdCsKHa-JAM8QFnoECAMQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.voanews.com%2Fafrica%2Fuganda-host-2000-afghan-refugees-us-request&usg=AOvVaw0IhTdbNkEwbzrnBCKzk-rY
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjh99LUyNHyAhVCdCsKHa-JAM8QFnoECAUQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fworld%2Fafrica%2Fuganda-take-2000-afghan-refugees-us-request-2021-08-17%2F&usg=AOvVaw27MMeh7H4KrR5T2gTzv167
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjh99LUyNHyAhVCdCsKHa-JAM8QFnoECBwQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dw.com%2Fen%2Farrival-of-afghan-refugees-in-uganda-raises-security-concerns%2Fa-58979994&usg=AOvVaw3eGth7Ppbe6DnjZlAngUCh
Those are no Afghan refugees, but the so-called US of A special forces. The dirty game is South Sudan. But they are playing with fire. The US, the UK, their creeps here in IGAD, the African Union (the AU), their UN, their sleazy NGOS, their evil juus (so-called israelis) attack dogs and their gulf Arab states love affair with our country and our people has gone too far, And they taste how much we hate them.
Here is another link: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjkvKODy9HyAhXHdCsKHccdAH4QFnoECAQQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2021%2F8%2F16%2Fdr-congo-accepts-us-military-help-against-adf-militia&usg=AOvVaw20XlPREmiS9y3ZdxYkKWoS
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjkvKODy9HyAhXHdCsKHccdAH4QFnoECAMQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fworld%2Fafrica%2Fcongo-says-us-deploy-counter-terrorism-advisors-restive-east-2021-08-16%2F&usg=AOvVaw1QDZGq12D7SRPL0kEHiJdE
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjkvKODy9HyAhXHdCsKHccdAH4QFnoECAIQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.africanews.com%2F2021%2F07%2F08%2Fon-the-trail-of-the-dr-congo-s-dreaded-adf-militia%2F%2F&usg=AOvVaw2GIUVFVaQ8q2wfdirBR5Dy
Don’t of Democratic republic Congo (D.R.C) knows how to fight terrorism, except the US special force who can fight terrorism in D.R.C? For all I care, it cheap and dirty intrigue is about ‘COLD WAR 2.0 or 4.0.—-It is all about South Sudan.
Mr. Matiop Aguek Anyang, If I tell, throw away that certificate you earned from the University of Juba, you would scream at me that I consider no one, but a little though.
There is this rubbish, the UN NEW WORLD ORDER, GOVERNMENT WITHOUT BORDERS, AFRICAN UNITY and REGIONAL INTEGRATION, being propagated by *foreign criminals and secret societies*. South Sudan has been hostage and she being blackmail by these the criminals l just mentioned above. Our Nile is coveted by our enemies. Rwanda of Mr. Paul Kagame is the one that destabilized D.R.C and Uganda to some small extent., take it or leave it chap.
Read other links: Rwanda 1994 genocide in Rwanda, does it in your ears chap, Mr. Paul Kagame was ‘deep in the next of it’. Mr. Paul Kagame mercenaries are here in Malakal to come and keep peace Oh really?, Mr. Paul Kagame mercenaries are in Central Africa republic (C.A.R, to go and keep peace there. Mr. Paul Kagame, mercenaries are in Mozambique to go and fight terrorist there.
Mr. Paul Kagame a member of the UN NEW WORLD ORDER, GOVERNMENT WITHOUT H BORDERS, EAST AFRICAN COMMUNITY (EAC), SO-CALLED AFRICA UNITY and REGIONAL INTEGRATION and Indians’ Gupta scammers family. Mr. Paul Kagame took his Rwanda to be part of the so-called commonwealth countries and does Mozambique, because Commonwealth are superior than African countries?!!! there you go? Mr. Emanuel Macron of France came and visit Mr. Paul Kagame’s Rwanda two month ago. Mr. Paul Kagame is everywhere and everywhere.
Rwandans are not our enemies. But our enemies are the lowly educated of like Mr. Paul Kagame. Mr. Salva Kiir is alleged to have ‘Plagiarized Paul Kagame speech’.
The reasons, why I dwelt this writing on Mr. Paul Kagame, is tell to you lives to be very careful. Malual Gienyang boys/girls, we have ask them to take some times of rest, we may call you, if it very hard for us in Upper Nile. But I doubt, our enemies are to game with us.
Game is over fools. South Sudan and the South Sudanese people are used as *begging bowls* around the world. South Sudanese in Northern Uganda, Gambella region, our Kakuma refugee camp, northern Kenya, Dabab, North Eastern Kenya are used by these low lives as their way making. Parasitism (probably symbioticism or could be a right word). >>>