Opinion | General Simon Gatwech versus General Dr. Riek Machar

By Professor Simon El hag Kulusika

OPINION – Media reports from Juba, capital of the Republic of South Sudan, originating from somewhere in the Greater Upper Nile region, would appear to indicate that there is or was grave rift between Gen. Dual and Gen. Dr Machar. This is evidenced by a declaration attributed to Gen Dual. In which he was alleged to declare that Gen. Dr Machar had been ousted as President of SPLM, – IO as well as Commander – in – Chief of SPLA – IO And that he had assumed the responsibility and duties of both offices, as from the date of the declaration.

Media also reported Dr Machar convened meetings of the party’s Political Bureau after which Machar issued Degrees or Adicts or Orders appointing three Generals to replace Gen. Dual, Johnson Olony, Thomas Mabor and others who were involved or supported the declaration of removal of Gen. Dr Machar from political and military position’s in SPLM,/A – IO. The declaration and the measures taken to deal with that declaration will have serious and dangerous impacts on South Sudan.

It’s assumed that every politico – military organizations in South Sudan as elsewhere in the world have laid down constitutions, laws and regulations dealing with different aspects of the operations of various organs, divisions and sections regarding matters related to holding office, retirement, promotion, relief from duties, appeals procedures, snf many more. At the military level these documents are relevant as they guide all from the Commander – in – Chief down to the corporal soldier of how an officer should conduct himself or herself including respect and adherence to Chains- of – Command, and commitment to the defence of the Land at any costs. Any actions or measures taken by authorities in those organizations must be consistent with the provisions governing the issues in question. From this one may claim that in the event the declaration of Gen. Dual and decisions of Gen Dr Machar are not in confirmative or are violative of the regulations of the politico – military organizations in question, such oversights should be addressed to find more satisfactory and peaceful resolutions.

Because the actions of the opposing forces within SPLM/A – IO as of now will lead to more violence, deaths and destruction of property. This is inevitable as Machar would be determined to defeat his opponents and assert his authority over the forces that have expressed support for Gen. Dual and the other generals in Upper Nile or other parts of South Sudan. If Machar is lucky and his aggressive, strategic approaches work well he may regain control within a few weeks of bloody campaigns. Otherwise, SPLM/A – IO may face disintegration and rise of several factions within it all making claims of being the alternative SPLM)A – IO. Such eventuality will weaken the party and its military wing. It will also raise doubts about Machar position as First Vice president. This in turn will impact negatively on the ineffective R-TGONU, erected upon a fragile peace agreement of 2018.

To prevent such dangerous chains of reactions this opinion article is urging Machar and the three generals who have assumed questionable control on some armed men and women belonging to SPLM/A – IO in Greater Upper Nile to enter into dialogue to resolve misunderstanding and reunite their forces. It’s difficult to imagine how this can be brought about under the present poison some emotions that have gripped all the sides to the conflict within SPLM/A – IO. Reconciliation must be tried even with the intervention of a third party such as Immams or Church leaders. Reconciliation is necessary to enable Machar and his groups play their roles in the implementation of the peace agreement.

The attempts to oust Machar are clear indicators of the weaknesses that plague all politico – military establishments in South Sudan, including SPLM/A under the leadership of Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit, President of the Republic of South Sudan. Other political parties and armed Fronts and Movements are also suffering from internal divisions and hence they are unable to make meaningful contributions to peace and economic stability in South Sudan. All these bodies must undertake thorough reforms and rethinking of their political and military strategies for brighter prospects. Reforms should address natters related to powers of leading organs – national council, executive committee, political bureau, etc – of the organizations, such as terms of office, qualifications, power to dismiss subordinates, to promote same, how to remove senior officials including the president or commander in chief. Dismissal, promotion, removal are substantive matters, but how they should be carried out is procedural matters that require more details. These can be set out in separate documents to ensure fairness and transparency. Each organizations should also have Codes to deal with misconduct of officials or military personnel. For armed groups and organizations they have to reconsider the central missions and objectives of their organizations, fronts or movements. It’s believed that such reforms will enhance the rejuvenation of all those concerned bodies trying to steer South Sudan towards peace and economic transformation and political stability.

If one considers carefully the implications of Gen. Dual declaration one will not fail to see how grave that declaration was and still is the case. The declaration was made at the time when the targeted person – Machar was at large, might be he was sipping coffee at his fortified residence located somewhere in Juba, thereby rendering the ouster ineffective at that time. The declaration was made somewhere in Upper Nile far from Juba where the central authorities of SPLM/A – IO is based. This raises further doubts about the gravity of the declaration. The declaration has created profound divisions within the Movement and may lead to its disintegration. As such the declaration is going to affect the implementation of the peace agreement as one of the parties to it is hampered from participating due to internal divisions and collapse. Even if Gen. Dual emerged Victorious, he might make fresh demands that may not be quickly accepted by Kiir Movement. Resulting in further delay or renew armed confrontations. Bad for South Sudan.

Internal divisions, provocative dismissals, defections, or outright rebellions will weaken that weak peace agreement that needs to be rewritten involving all armed groups, civil political parties, NGOs and other interested civic organizations. All must take part in agreeing and writing a new peace agreement that will lead South Sudan on the path of peaceful coexistence in ethnic diversity.

The author is a professor at the Zambian Open University. He can be reached via: simonkulusika@gmail.com.

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