Opinion | The geopolitics and fragility of the revitalized peace agreement

By Kanybil Noon

OPINION – First and foremost our current military geography is so complex because of distinguished geopolitical spheres among the government that controls the shaky peace agreement, disconnected generals and other insurgent groups.

Thus, let us study our Geopolitics which focused on physical locations and influences on military operations, culture and economic impacts of military presence.

Here, physical locations are influenced by armed militias, rebels and government forces.

For examples, General Johnson Olony and General Gatwech Dual situation needs a quick study and response before it is too late because they have full controlled over SPLA -IO forces and areas.

Secondly the Military operations against them will become difficult if not addressed as early as possible because culturally, most of these militia forces are directly controlled, obedience and answerable to them.

Nevertheless, economically, the government forces are economically demoralized to fight against Guerrilla warfare of hit and run.

The guerrilla warfare will not be sustained by the current low moral government military forces and eventually, insurgents will have upper hands to take over towns in areas of low government influences.

As far as conventional warfare is concerned, the government forces can’t manage to effectively carry out a military campaign against insurgent groups in upper Nile because of tarian which shall not allow use of artillery and armored vehicles besides military low morale.

Not only that but the military presence within and around the oil fields makes it a legitimate target for insurgents which would have a negative consequences on the government economically because rebels will not only target legitimate military targets but  oil fields too.

As government attempts to protect oil facilities as they are equally considered legitimate targets by insurgent, heavy destruction shall be inflicted on the facilities.

Therefore, the insurgents’ military offensive on oil facilities will lead to a shutdown of the oil production which is government major income.

By losing a major Economic source, the government influences on military operations will be insignificant.

Within those areas controlled by rebels, government will lose legitimacy.

At tactical level, the insurgencies are likely to emerge victorious during raining season and government capability shall be weaken especially the use of artillery and armored vehicles shall be ineffective.

At strategic level, as rebels gained influences over civilian population, intelligence operations shall be rendered ineffective because civil population will not cooperate, with the government as a result of lack of influence over the areas.

Emerging responsibility as government has already been accused of not protecting it citizens would have a significant impact on the government military campaign against insurgent because protection of civil populations especially women and ethnic groups have proven to be poor.

Provision of humanitarian response would obviously be difficult and hence weakening government influenced on the civil populations and rebels shall use it as a tool to exert more influences on the civil populations.

By doing so, the government loses legitimacy in those areas of military operations.

Regional complexity

We are fully aware that Ethiopia and Egypt are at odd with each other over the Dam and both Countries are in need of South Sudan help.

Already there are suspicions which can easily be exploited by insurgents in Upper Nile and beyond South Sudan.

Finally, as government shall be forced to doubles it efforts to keep oil production on, other areas shall remain vulnerable to insurgents and towns shall be overrun by them.

As we know, areas that used to provide reinforcement may see it unnecessary to provide fighting forces because they see it as a fight over resources and power that have less important to them because of military low morale.

Eventually, the government will only have control over Juba and most towns in Bar El Ghazel but lose many towns in Upper Nile and Equatoria to insurgents.

Consequently, three things will happened,

1. There shall be fresh negotiations with General Johnson Olony and General Gatwech Dual as they shall announce a new insurgent different from the IO of Dr. Riek Machar.
2. The position of first vice president will no longer be as strong as it is today because most of powerful positions will be taken by these two Generals who controlled military.
3. It is very likely that Bar El Ghazel will equally have parallel insurgent group who shall take part in the negotiations with the government and Upper Nile insurgent group besides Equatoria insurgents.

Finally, South Sudan will never be at peace until corruption is fought against and reduce in our system and change our foreign policy.

Therefore, there is an urgency to implement security arrangement in order for both the government and Dr. Riek to get hold of some military forces.

Kanybil Noon is a student of Strategic and security studies and a member of Strategic Defence and Security Review board of the Revitalized peace agreement. He can be reached via: kan1noon@gmail.com.

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