Opinion | Who will win the war in South Sudan?

By Prof. Simon E. Kulusika

OPINION — Nyamilepedia blog published an opinion article for this author on wars in South Sudan. In response to that article Gen Yien Tot L Padiet, President of SSNDP wrote a very interesting opinion. Of interest to this article is the following extract. He argued: “To be honest, the ongoing horrible armed violence between the rebels and the Government of Juba will never come to an end until Mayard’s regime has been successfully toppled through the barrel of the gun.” This would appear to have been prompted by President Kiir’s statement in 2013 that he was the ‘only ruler of South Sudan’.

Provisional summation based on that extract is that Pacific resolution of the armed confrontations in South Sudan is ruled out by the various armed groups fighting the government of Juba. This leads the reader to raise a question similar to the question that form theas the title of this article. It’s hoped the reader has a direct answer to that question. On the side of this author only assumptions will be provided on the basis of which conclusions might be drawn.

1. Wars whether between states or between liberation movements or between insurgents and governments are won or Lost depending on numbers of factors and the prevailing conditions. Factors that may be referred to include preparation, such as recruitment,training, orientation of fighters as to ideology, availability of all weather clothes and footwears, intelligence and crafting of flexible military strategies. Other factors consist of manpower and determination and commitment to the cause which must be articulated and conveyed to the fighters. Then comes the matter related to weaponry. The weapons must be as advanced as the enemy might have, if not superior. To these one must add supplies such as foods, medicines, military kits and effective portable means of communications;,etc. If one looks objectively at these samples of military factors one can surmise who is at disadvantage among the warring parties to the armed conflicts in South Sudan.

2. History tells us that liberation wars or armed resistance against government or governments require a unified front, and willingness of people to volunteer as fighters. That is finding of fighters: men and women should not be problematic. It was this voluntariness that paved the way for Mao and Castro to be victorious against their respective governments, in addition to weakness those governments had suffered as the revolutionaries were advancing towards the capitals. In the cases of South Sudan the main fighting forces are the youth. But where are they? In towns ,cities or refugees camps or IDPs centres. Recruitment becomes a nightmare. A further disadvantage.

3. Movements or Fronts ordinarily start as regional forces but they quickly assume national character to enhance unity and strengthen operations against the government forces. Fighters who are regionally based even if they comprise persons from other regions or ethnic groups can still face troubles as they begin to advance on the capital. Because each one of them will claim that they had occupied large parts of the country giving them the right to have a bigger share of power or places in the government. Such situation is bound to emerge if the current or future armed groups do not address same. This is based on the fact that most if not all armed groups are centre in areas where the founding commander came from. This was a matter of necessity, eg, NDM is mostly found in Upper Nile, SSNF concentrated in Greater Bahr all Ghazal, NSF in Equatorial, and so on.

4. Issues that have taken much debates relate to acquisition of weapons by armed groups. That issues should not be dwelled upon because weapons are found all over the world. What is critical is the cash. If an armed group can find Cash it can buy the latest Ak 107 from black market. Even tanks, such as T 72 can be acquired from black market. The real challenges to armed groups is how to get those arms across the borders. Another difficulty is the support government gets from regional powers. The world community is generally opposed to use of force to get to power. But they are slow in taking actions against government that tends to violate the human rights of people. Also leaders who looted the wealth of the public are never severely sanctioned. This has made recourse to use of force to get to power as inevitable. The support renders by regional powers is going to make the tasks of armed groups extremely difficult. At the same time the conflicts will escalate thereby deepening the sufferings of the people of South Sudan.

5. In view of the above this article believes that chance should be given to peaceful negotiations so that a new peace agreement is arrived at by all the parties to the conflicts in South Sudan without preference. All must partake in the peace agreement as equals, taking into account only ethnic size in the allocation of positions.

The author is a lecturer at Zambia Open University. He can be reached via: simonkulusika@gmail.com.

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