Opinion | Personal perspectives on the planned popular uprising and why South Sudanese should not buy that catastrophic idea

By Santino Ayual Bol

OPINION – Some civil societies initially spearheaded by Red Card Movement and now PCCA (People’s Coalition for Civil Action), and others still anonymous have planned and converged to stage popular uprising on the 30^th August 2021. Though these civil societies and organizations have various complains and demands against the current sitting government they and their sponsors seem to have secretly agreed on one temporary objective of staging the popular uprising on the 30^th of August 2021 which falls on a working day of the week: Monday! I’m writing this piece of opinion article throwing into the PCCA foray my analytical constructive argument and why the people of South Sudan should not be part of that dangerous adventure. The objective prevailing realities in South Sudan are so dire that they don’t need to be made worse by popular uprising strategists. We have numerous examples of dangerously failed popular uprisings in Libya, and Syria daily staring in our faces in the social media to give us enough warning DO NOT DARE SOUTH SUDANESE!

The prevailing objective realities in South Sudan which the people of South Sudan should consider before they are driven into their worst nightmare of a popular uprising are the following:

1. There is very scanty information about these civil societies that are advocating for popular revolution in the country especially the profiles of their leaders and their hierarchies and how they relate to one another, leaders’ backgrounds, their manifestos, vision about South Sudan, political programs, and their short,medium,and long term strategies of achieving this popular uprising! It is not enough to just shout to South Sudanese common people on social media to pour onto the streets on a certain day without proper civic education. Any ordinary mad man or woman with mental challenges can do that. Common people cannot be driven into hasty dangerous undertaking without proper civic education and enough preparations on how to achieve that project. Don’t fool common people into dangerous situations. It is a crime and dangerous.
2. South Sudan is awash with illegal weapons and munitions and any small provocation especially any action involving deaths during demonstration will automatically call for violent retaliation from relatives and friends using these illegal weapons. Analytical skills and reasoning being poor and ethnic always among common people they will start to blame each other on tribal and regional bases on demonstrators’ deaths rendering common objective and national vision second and meaningless. Hence, a war of all against all will ensue even within one tribe, county, or state.
3. In the course of breakdown of law and order in the country, it will be perfect opportunity for cattle thieves, child abductors, and unknown armed gunmen to thrive and grow in the cities and jungles of South Sudan making it latter difficult to bring under control.
4. Rebels with ethnic agenda will find it perfect opportunity to start to kill as many as they want undeterred vulnerable people whom they hate running away from Juba or plying the highways across the country during the mayhem of the popular uprising when the government efforts would have been derailed and punctured. It would even be golden chance for some of these ethnic rebels to control their regions and drive out or kill unwanted ethnicities after all these rebels have no national agenda.
5. Some tribes and states are so engaged in parochial issues of borders, cattle rustling and revenge killings with less interest in national issues in Juba, hence making popular uprising theory a mockery project and doom to fail. Should the planned revolution take time to succeed in Juba, tribes will find something else important to them to embark up on.
6. Neighboring countries look at South Sudan land and territories as a hot cake to divide among themselves. In a worse-case scenario where the people have brought down their government with its army and law and order enforcement agencies in disarray, nothing will prevent some neighboring countries from annexing some South Sudanese territories or even states in the pretext of protecting their national interest. Mind about the oil and other minerals in the country which other countries jealously want to have a share of.
7. Further and similar to point 6 above is the issue of super powers geopolitical and strategic natural resources interests. China and America are both already here and equally need oil, gold, diamond, name them. They will fan the confusion ensuing from popular uprising and there will be no “one nation one people” song again here. Study current post-Gadaffi Libya and why there are two governments there in Tripoli and Bengazi respectively.
8. Popular uprising will exacerbate the current infighting in SPLM/SPLA-IO. The two factions of IO will be less interested in throwing their weights behind leaders of the popular uprising in Juba whom they don’t know rather it will be perfect opportunity to reorganize and march militarily to Juba unchecked along the way and take J1 and kill or threaten the unarmed civilian leaders of the so-called popular revolution or they may gang up with government to defend R-ARCISS. It will the same story with Paul Malong, Cirilo, Pagan, etc groups attempting to march to J1 in Juba. Do you think General King Paul Malong, Pagan Amum, or Thomas Cirilo will give a damned shit hearing to a herd of some old civilian politicians or a group of toddlers wearing PHD tags on their necks?  You are a fool if you think they will.  They will not respect or allow civilian leaders of the Popular Uprising to rule South Sudan not even for a day.
9. It will be difficult to find and agree unanimously on one national leader to provisionally lead South Sudan to elections and democratic dispensation through popular uprising as a every tribe and region would front their sons or daughters and failure to select their son or daughter in those processes would prefer to secede with their regions from others. This will be perfect balkanization or Somalization of South Sudan.
10. Last but not least financial institutions especially banks, Forex Bureaux, and transfers, cars, trucks, malls, food stores, and warehouses, shops, homes, etc will be looted during the confusion of the popular uprising. Recall the events and what happened during the 2013/4, and 2016 crises in Juba. Read, listen and watch what is happening in Kabul, Afghanistan currently. What happened in Uganda when Idi Amin exited power in 1979, Mobutu in Congo in 1998, Mengistu in Ethiopia in 1991, Muamar Gadhafi in Libya, Siad Barre in Somalia in 1991, etc?

What is the way forward?

The writer personally does have some feelings and experiences of some of the many things that are not going right in South Sudan at the present moment and no pretending from his side that things are rosy and economic booms here at the moment. The writer always agrees with whoever complains that South Sudanese lives are poor, miserable, insecure, laborious, and short especially after achieving our liberation and political independence from the Khartoum based Arab Islamic regimes. However, the bone of contention is rushing to hasty conclusions on how to remove the regime in power in the land through military overthrow, bush war, and or hasty popular uprising! There are many innovative ways educated class can cleverly and gradually change situations in their homelands apart from the above failed approaches. Consider the following:

1. Forming political parties, lobby groups, legislation or parliamentary laws and urge for democratic transfer of leadership through periodic regular and fair elections could be one attempt.
2. Liberation through economic developments. Leaders should be going to their grass roots in their native villages and be regularly with the common people and bring them development through social services and amenities such as affordable drinking water, health services, education, roads, electricity, business entrepreneurial empowerment, etc. Now Juba is constipated with political leaders who seem to have run away from their constituencies across South Sudan and have sought political asylum in Juba for good. The same leaders make hollow noises in Juba about bringing changes through popular uprising to the lives of a people they have neglected and whom they cannot visit for years. Is this individual politician’s problem President Salva Kiir’s government problem?
3. PCCA, Red Card, and other underground movements should focus their intellectual and financial synergies on local grass root level development, social awareness, and organization across South Sudan rather than trying to push common South Sudanese people suffering daily into their individual graves through popular uprising. If Uganda and Kenya close their borders during confusion in Juba, hunger will either kill or disperse the demonstrators in addition to stray bullets. A net importer country like South Sudan cannot sustain long period of demonstration and economic paralysis without giving up those demonstrations to go and look for food to eat. Mind you Juba has no pipe water and stopping everyone from doing their daily works including the water tankers drivers (Ethiopian/Eritrean) will automatically be the beginning of the failure of the Uprising itself. The PCCA ring leaders want us all to play Russian Roulette but we don’t want it. South Sudanese people instead want to play local game known as “ Tok ku rou ku diak, etc or Geleng,morek, musala,”
4. Using the UN, AU, and IGAD and international friends to advise leaders and massage their egos to conform to democratic practices and behavior such as elections and to give up power democratically, non-violently and voluntarily.
5. Finally, South Sudanese common people are not ready to be led by a leader or group of leaders that do not access power through democratic processes, neither are they prepared for ethnic or regional hegemony. Majority of South Sudanese are prepared to patiently wait and vote at the end of the transitional period of R-ARCISS government rather than engage in this fool’s errand called the popular uprising.

The author is a student at the University of Nairobi. Reach him via: ayual@students.uonbi.ac.ke.

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